Week One Notes: I went 10-6 for week one, 63%. Not bad. First off Arian Foster is my hero right now. That man went insane on the Colts. Although mad props to the Texans O-Line and the blocking beast that is Vonta Leach. If you go back and watch some of those runs look for Leach punishing people with awesome lead blocks. Not trying to take away from Foster but I could have averaged about three yards a carry with that blocking. Both of the times the Texans have beat the Colts, I picked the Colts to win…consipiracy?

The Cowboys looked terrible, which made me really happy until I realized I picked them to win.

I take the bad things I said about San Diego/Kansas City not being a good game. That game was good and it looks like KC might actually be a good sleeper this year. (Or at least like Denver last year.)

The Jets offense looked bad (just like I said it would). I think the Jets are good, just not as good as everyone is making them out to be. I’ve said that since the Jets became media darlings last season. Enough chit-chat let’s get to the picks.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee

The Titans were lucky enough to play the Raiders in week one but this game is going to test them for real. The Steelers look good, Dennis Dixon…not so much. I still think Dixon is a solid back-up but I obviously retract my “people will love Dennis Dixon” after his week one performance.  I feel a low scoring game here with a stout Steelers D and a most likely lack luster offense against the Titans. However I think it’ll be easier for Tennessee to get on the board.

Miami at Minnesota

Both of these teams had an unattractive week one. Minnesota got embarrassed on the season opener and Miami made me  wonder if the Bills were a good team. That does not bode well for Miami fans. The Dolphins are better than that but hey they still got the win. I’m going with Minnesota at home and with an angry Favre. P.S. How many more games does Favre have in him? A side bet to make with friends.

Arizona at Atlanta

Arizona barely got by the Rams and now have to travel to Atlanta. Atlanta’s offense looked pretty back but I think they’ll get back in the grove this game. And maybe the Atlanta defense can get some confidence against Arizona. Atlanta wins.

Baltimore at Cincinnati

The Bengals might be able to get some passing yards against the suspect secondary in Baltimore. Yeah right now Baltimore is 1st in passing yards allowed but that’s just because the played the Jets. And the Bengals ate up yards in the air last week. However I think the Ravens are better and will not lose this game. Another close game for Baltimore this week? The return of the Cardiac Cats? I think so.

Kansas City at Cleveland

I think this is an easy pick (depending on whether a not KC is a fluke). KC looked good in the late night MNF and last week Cleveland looked like…well Cleveland. And there are reports the Jake Delhomme is questionable and not practicing. I don’t know if that’s a good or bad thing for Cleveland. I still think KC can win this and show they’re a good team now.

Chicago at Dallas

This is a tough call because it’s really tough to peg these teams for me right now. I’m going with Chicago because Detroit is not as bad as they have been and Chicago put good D on them and had a decent offensive outing. And Dallas really likes beating themselves.

Philadelphia at Detroit

The battle of the backups. Michael Vick is starting his first game since 2006 which will be either very disappointing or very exciting. It’s like when Quentien Tarentino came out with the Grindhouse Double Feature. You knew it was going to be great or it was going to be a huge tease. On the other side there’s Shaun Hill, filling in for Matthew Stafford. Shaun Hill is actually 10-6 as a starter and is a decent QB. But he has as much appeal as that Legends of G’Hoole owl movie.  As much as I want the Lions to win this one I have to go with the Eagles.

Buffalo at Green Bay

No Ryan Grant for Green Bay but the good news is they have a week to figure out how to run the ball. Playing Buffalo is a free pass for Green Bay to find out what works for them without Grant. This would be a tough win for Buffalo on the road, I’m going with Green Bay.

Tampa Bay at Carolina

I smell a game with a lot of rushing yards here. It’ll be a close one with Carolina getting the edge.

Seattle at Denver

Seattle’s win over San Fran was not all that impressive on their part. I think Denver is the better team and will be ready to win this one. Maybe I just hate Pete Carroll.

St. Louis at Oakland

I don’t know where to begin with this one. I’m thinking Oakland but it’s almost too close to call. You really would like one of these teams to come out of the NFL cellar but last week did not look good for either team. The team that wins this could gain momentum to…almost hit 500 but the team who loses is verifying their spot in the cellar. I’m going with…sigh…Oakland.

Houston at Washington

Will Arian Foster have a repeat performance? No. Will Arian Foster have a good game? Yes. One thing about the Texans though is they have an incredible passing game that was not unleashed last week. I’m thinking the pass attack comes full force here. This should be a very pass happy (Kyle Shanahan) game but I’m going with Houston to win the shoot-out.

New England at NY Jets

This game should be fun. In one corner we have a team loved by the media who is showing it’s flaws and had a horrible week one. In the other a team that is not well like outside of it’s own fan base, has been written off this season, however had a great week one. The Pats look good and I don’t think the Jets have what it takes to stop them. Sub-plot of this game is whether or not Randy Moss gets stranded on Revis Island.

Jacksonville at San Diego

I don’t want to pick one here because I feel like I’ll be jinxing one of them. This is an important win for both of these teams in terms of momentum. I think the Chargers are a better team and they are playing at home. San Diego will win but the Jags might be able to prove that they’re to be taken seriously.

NY Giants at Indianapolis

The battle of the Manning’s. Here’s the way it works. Indy is a better team. Indy has now lost the Super Bowl and a game vs. the Texans they historically win. Indy is a football machine that wins games. Indy will beat the Giants.

New Orleans at San Francisco

The Saints are in back-to-back prime time games here. The Saints looked really good last Thursday and have had plenty of time off to rest and prepare. San Francisco on the other hand had horrible offensive woes last week and have a really tough opponent here. New Orleans should win this game hands down.

Bring on the NFL. I’ve been craving some football and I’m ready to pick some winners. This offseason has been more entertaining than most with the Winter Olympics, the World Cup, Tiger Woods…etc. But now football season is upon us and I am starting my second annual weekly picks. Last year I went 163-91 (.641) and prided myself in have 30 more wins than Bill Simmons, the Sports Guy. I feel this it needs a name like “Paul’s Picks” or “Paul the Geek” or something like that but not as lame. I don’t know. Anyway without further ado here’s week one:

Minnesota at New Orleans

I just can’t see Brett Favre winning this for Minnesota. I’d pick New Orleans’ defense stopping Minnesota’s offense in what could be a shoot-out. Favre is missing that receiver I can’t think of at the moment and Percy Harvin is having migraines. And migraines ain’t no joke. How can you run routes when your head is being destroyed? Favre’s nightmare is revisited on Thursday. New Orleans.

Miami at Buffalo

How many games will Buffalo win this year? And how many games will Miami win before we really start to care? I really don’t see Buffalo as the type of team that gets off to a good start I’m going with Miami.

Detroit at Chicago

I feel bad for the Lions. But not bad enough to pick them over the Bears. I say the Bears win this one mainly because I can’t pick the Lions until the Lions start proving they can actually win a game. I can’t pick the Lions this early until I see them in action. Chicago.

Oakland at Tennessee

Anyone who knows me knows that I always try to find a reason to not pick the Titans. This game doesn’t look good for Oakland. Their at Tennessee and they have to play Chris Johnson. We all know Oakland’s run defense is suspect. And yeah the offense will be better with Jason Campbell…it will be better nobody said anything about it being good. Also, I don’t see the hype about Oakland stealing the division. Tennessee.

Cincinnati at New England

I have a feeling this is going to be a really good game. The Cardiac Cats are going to be in effect this game. I think the Bengals can beat the Pats here but the Pats make less mistakes than the Bengals. I’m going to say this will be close but it’s hard to pick the Bengals to not only beat the Pats but not beat themselves. I’m doing it any way though. Cincinnati upset.

Carolina at NYG

This is strange because I feel a lot of people are high on Carolina and downing the Giants. Personally I think Carolina is a year away from being really good. Only time will tell. For now I’m going with the Giants.

Atlanta at Pittsburgh

I’m going with the Steelers here because I like the Steelers D. I like the Steelers at home. I like the Steelers passing attack against Atlanta’s pass defense (yes even with out Big Ben). I might even go so far as to say people will love Dennis Dixon after this game. I think Matt Ryan & Co. is going to struggle against the Steelers D and Mike Tomlin is going to have a great game plan for success with Dixon at QB. Pittsburgh.

Cleveland at Tampa Bay

This is one of those games that I wonder if anyone will win. On paper I had trouble really picking a winner so I’m going with coaching and management on this pick early in the season. Holmgren/Mangini seems better I’m going with Cleveland.

Denver at Jacksonville

I predict Jacksonville will have more people on the field than people in the stands. I really think Jacksonville will have a stellar offensive year.  I say Jacksonville wins it but the people of Jacksonville won’t care. They’ll still walk away angry because Tebow didn’t play.

Indianapolis at Houston

If you followed my picks last year you know I rarely pick against Houston. Visions of last year play through my head though. An unprepared Houston team looks horrible in the season opener. We all know the Colts are robots, emotionless beings on this earth for the shear purpose of playing playoff football. As much as I want to pick the Texans I see the first half of this game being Houston shaking the rust off while the Colts show that they are a well oiled machine. The second half will tease me and make me think we could come back but the Colts always find ways to beat the Texans. Prove me wrong Kubiak, Colts win.

San Francisco at Seattle

Everyone, myself included, is on the 49ers bandwagon this preseason. I think the 49ers defense is going to be great. And the reports of the crazy drills they’re putting Alex Smith through makes me think the offense is going to be bland but will be able to move the ball. I think rookie coach Pete Carroll might look a little bad in this game. Who is Matt Hasselbeck going to be throwing to again? Wait is Hasselbeck even starting anymore? Maybe I just don’t know anything about the Seahawks…anyway I choose San Fran.

Green Bay at Philadelphia

Aaron Rodgers is going to prove he’s worth the hype and my  good old friend Dom Campers has a solid defense in Green Bay. Meanwhile in Philly, they’re making adjustments. I think Green Bay is too strong of an opponent for Philly here. I hope Kolb has a good game because I really like him and it could get nasty for him if he doesn’t produce and win. I hope to see a lot of Kevin Kolb Cambell’s Chunky Soup commercials in this game…McNabb passed that torch to Kolb too right? Green Bay.

Arizona at St. Louis

This game seems a lot more exciting on paper than it actually is…and it really doesn’t excite me on paper. I don’t see St. Louis being capable of surprising the downward spiraling Cardinals. Arizona will win but it won’t feel like a win.

Dallas at Washington

I really want Washington to win this one. And I really want Dallas to lose every game they ever play. Ever.  But all of that aside I have to be cautious here and pick Dallas. I really need to see this Washington offense before I can feel good about picking them against good defenses.

Baltimore at NYJ

I’m still waiting for the Jets to break down. I really like this game because it’s going to be a great defensive game. The punters might actually have more to do with who wins than the quarterbacks. I like Flacco in this game more than Sanchez. I’m going with Flacco being able to put it together better than Sanchez can. Baltimore.

San Diego at Kansas City

Kansas City can be one of those surprise teams this year but ANY team in the West (NFC or AFC) could be a surprise team. I think KC could have a good season and everyone is predicting San Diego will decline this year but they’re still the better team. I’m going with San Diego, this is still a team with Philip Rivers and Norv Turner that should get them this win. But now that I think about it, Who choose this to be the opening game for Monday Night Football. San Diego at KC really? Weak.

Last week I went 3-1. Which is good because the week before I went 1-3, so I’m sitting at 500 with 4-4. Let’s look at to who I’m going with to go to Miami…

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

Ok, so I’ve been dead wrong about these Jets. But I’m still not sold. My feelings about this game is simple. The New York Jets are modeled after the Baltimore Ravens. You have an awesome tough defense and a game manager type quarterback. I think if the Colts can beat the Ravens they can beat the Jets, who are essentially a slightly worse version of the Ravens. I think the Jets are good and they play with a lot of intensity and emotion. But the Colts are the opposite, they are very controlled and methodical and they have been preparing for this for awhile. Whoever wins this game gets to be a rookie coach going to the Super Bowl. I don’t think it’s going to be Rex Ryan.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

This game might be the toughest game to call in the playoffs. I love the Saints. I love their attitude. I love their fans. I think they’re the best team in the NFL. But then there’s the Vikings. This team is no joke. If it wasn’t for mid-season ‘power struggles’ their record would have probably been better. I’ve been thinking about who to pick. On one side we have the young fiery Drew Brees, who leads his team with intensity and has amazing weapons surrounding him. On the other we have the Ol’ Gunslinger, he knows how to win and will do everything in his power to get there. His presence makes everyone around him better and he leads by example. He brings a confidence to the young athletes around him. Both of these offenses are incredible and can light up many defenses and that’s why this game will be won on the other side of the ball. Because we all know offense entertains but defense wins games. Both teams have some good defenses, but Minnesota has an amazing D-Line and run stopping game. At the same time, they’re going to need it with all the weapons New Orleans has. The Saints defense is very versatile and they’ll need it against the different looks the Vikings are going to throw their way. In the end after much consideration, I’m going against what my heart is telling me. I’m picking the Vikings because I think their defense is going to make plays and win the game.

Hey kids! After going 1-3 last week, I need to pick up my game and pick every game right if I want a winning record in the playoffs. It really hurts me that the only winner that I picked correctly last week was the Cowboys. And I had the Cardinals all wrong. I should have known that Kurt Warner was going to be playoff ready. Although, the Green Bay Packers almost won that game after being completely out of it. You can’t say that was a bad game, easily could be the best game of the playoffs.

Arizona at New Orleans

I don’t really know what to think of this game off the bat. The Saints have been my pick to go to the Super Bowl for most of the season. But the Cardinals offense, even without Anquan Boldin, is perhaps unstoppable. Their defense however seems to be pushovers. I’m going with the Saints because they have both a potent offense and defense. The only way the Saints can lose is if they break down.

Baltimore at Indianapolis

The Colts are a great team. Forget all that benching the starters stuff. Forget that they didn’t be part of history. All you have to know is that they want one thing and one thing only. They want to win the Super Bowl. That’s why they benched starters and decline an invitation to be ‘historic.’ The Colts are going to be ready to play. The Ravens aren’t chumps though and are ready to smack around the Colts offense. I think this will be a lower scoring game than most people think. However, Peyton ‘MVP’ Manning is going to pull through and win it for the Colts.

Dallas at Minnesota

No matter how hot the Cowboys are, I still think Vikings are a better team. I’m still waiting for the Cowboys and Tony Romo to fall apart and I’m picking that this is the game. The Vikings defense is intense and Jared Allen has put a target on Romo’s jersey. And how I forget to mention The Ol’ Gunslinger. Gunslinger is going in this game willing to do anything to win, even ignore Brad Childress’ playcalling…

New York Jets at San Diego

So right now I’m thinking to myself, I haven’t picked a wild card team to go on to the next round. And it’s not changing now. I think the Chargers are going to expose the Jets. The Jets play with a lot of emotion but are not as great of a team as they are made out to be. The Jets are a good story and have become media darlings but that doesn’t make them a good playoff team.

There it is.

Reportedly there is a “schism” within the Vikings camp. According to sources, some players feel Brett Favre is not the best choice as the starting Quarter Back. When addressed with this issue Brett Favre says, “I don’t even know what that means…I don’t think any guy in the locker room, including me, would use that word.”  Chad Greenway: “Schism. You guys are just making up words now.” Defensive Lineman Jarred Allen had this to say, “I don’t think anyone on this team knows what that word means, let alone use it in a sentence. I thought it was an STD. I was like, whoa! We preach abstinence around these parts.” Whether or not part of the team thinks they’re better off in the hands of Sage Rosenfels or Taveras Jackson is unsure.  However,  some Vikings might need an SAT prep course or at least a “word of the day calander.”