Bring on the NFL. I’ve been craving some football and I’m ready to pick some winners. This offseason has been more entertaining than most with the Winter Olympics, the World Cup, Tiger Woods…etc. But now football season is upon us and I am starting my second annual weekly picks. Last year I went 163-91 (.641) and prided myself in have 30 more wins than Bill Simmons, the Sports Guy. I feel this it needs a name like “Paul’s Picks” or “Paul the Geek” or something like that but not as lame. I don’t know. Anyway without further ado here’s week one:

Minnesota at New Orleans

I just can’t see Brett Favre winning this for Minnesota. I’d pick New Orleans’ defense stopping Minnesota’s offense in what could be a shoot-out. Favre is missing that receiver I can’t think of at the moment and Percy Harvin is having migraines. And migraines ain’t no joke. How can you run routes when your head is being destroyed? Favre’s nightmare is revisited on Thursday. New Orleans.

Miami at Buffalo

How many games will Buffalo win this year? And how many games will Miami win before we really start to care? I really don’t see Buffalo as the type of team that gets off to a good start I’m going with Miami.

Detroit at Chicago

I feel bad for the Lions. But not bad enough to pick them over the Bears. I say the Bears win this one mainly because I can’t pick the Lions until the Lions start proving they can actually win a game. I can’t pick the Lions this early until I see them in action. Chicago.

Oakland at Tennessee

Anyone who knows me knows that I always try to find a reason to not pick the Titans. This game doesn’t look good for Oakland. Their at Tennessee and they have to play Chris Johnson. We all know Oakland’s run defense is suspect. And yeah the offense will be better with Jason Campbell…it will be better nobody said anything about it being good. Also, I don’t see the hype about Oakland stealing the division. Tennessee.

Cincinnati at New England

I have a feeling this is going to be a really good game. The Cardiac Cats are going to be in effect this game. I think the Bengals can beat the Pats here but the Pats make less mistakes than the Bengals. I’m going to say this will be close but it’s hard to pick the Bengals to not only beat the Pats but not beat themselves. I’m doing it any way though. Cincinnati upset.

Carolina at NYG

This is strange because I feel a lot of people are high on Carolina and downing the Giants. Personally I think Carolina is a year away from being really good. Only time will tell. For now I’m going with the Giants.

Atlanta at Pittsburgh

I’m going with the Steelers here because I like the Steelers D. I like the Steelers at home. I like the Steelers passing attack against Atlanta’s pass defense (yes even with out Big Ben). I might even go so far as to say people will love Dennis Dixon after this game. I think Matt Ryan & Co. is going to struggle against the Steelers D and Mike Tomlin is going to have a great game plan for success with Dixon at QB. Pittsburgh.

Cleveland at Tampa Bay

This is one of those games that I wonder if anyone will win. On paper I had trouble really picking a winner so I’m going with coaching and management on this pick early in the season. Holmgren/Mangini seems better I’m going with Cleveland.

Denver at Jacksonville

I predict Jacksonville will have more people on the field than people in the stands. I really think Jacksonville will have a stellar offensive year.  I say Jacksonville wins it but the people of Jacksonville won’t care. They’ll still walk away angry because Tebow didn’t play.

Indianapolis at Houston

If you followed my picks last year you know I rarely pick against Houston. Visions of last year play through my head though. An unprepared Houston team looks horrible in the season opener. We all know the Colts are robots, emotionless beings on this earth for the shear purpose of playing playoff football. As much as I want to pick the Texans I see the first half of this game being Houston shaking the rust off while the Colts show that they are a well oiled machine. The second half will tease me and make me think we could come back but the Colts always find ways to beat the Texans. Prove me wrong Kubiak, Colts win.

San Francisco at Seattle

Everyone, myself included, is on the 49ers bandwagon this preseason. I think the 49ers defense is going to be great. And the reports of the crazy drills they’re putting Alex Smith through makes me think the offense is going to be bland but will be able to move the ball. I think rookie coach Pete Carroll might look a little bad in this game. Who is Matt Hasselbeck going to be throwing to again? Wait is Hasselbeck even starting anymore? Maybe I just don’t know anything about the Seahawks…anyway I choose San Fran.

Green Bay at Philadelphia

Aaron Rodgers is going to prove he’s worth the hype and my  good old friend Dom Campers has a solid defense in Green Bay. Meanwhile in Philly, they’re making adjustments. I think Green Bay is too strong of an opponent for Philly here. I hope Kolb has a good game because I really like him and it could get nasty for him if he doesn’t produce and win. I hope to see a lot of Kevin Kolb Cambell’s Chunky Soup commercials in this game…McNabb passed that torch to Kolb too right? Green Bay.

Arizona at St. Louis

This game seems a lot more exciting on paper than it actually is…and it really doesn’t excite me on paper. I don’t see St. Louis being capable of surprising the downward spiraling Cardinals. Arizona will win but it won’t feel like a win.

Dallas at Washington

I really want Washington to win this one. And I really want Dallas to lose every game they ever play. Ever.  But all of that aside I have to be cautious here and pick Dallas. I really need to see this Washington offense before I can feel good about picking them against good defenses.

Baltimore at NYJ

I’m still waiting for the Jets to break down. I really like this game because it’s going to be a great defensive game. The punters might actually have more to do with who wins than the quarterbacks. I like Flacco in this game more than Sanchez. I’m going with Flacco being able to put it together better than Sanchez can. Baltimore.

San Diego at Kansas City

Kansas City can be one of those surprise teams this year but ANY team in the West (NFC or AFC) could be a surprise team. I think KC could have a good season and everyone is predicting San Diego will decline this year but they’re still the better team. I’m going with San Diego, this is still a team with Philip Rivers and Norv Turner that should get them this win. But now that I think about it, Who choose this to be the opening game for Monday Night Football. San Diego at KC really? Weak.

Earlier this afternoon some Texans fans were ecstatic with the possibility of a playoff run. However most knew the reality of the situation, the Texans needed two bad teams to win and the Bengals to play well in a meaningless game. After the Kansas City Chiefs won playoffs looked like they could be on the horizon. But as we all know by now the Jets beat the Bengals and got the much coveted second wild card berth. So let the blaming begin! The scapegoat of the bunch is Kris Brown, a veteran kicker who lost his confidence Brad Lidge style. While he didn’t do his job, Kubiak put him on the hot seat by not using his stellar offense to score touchdowns. Coach Kubiak opted to set up for field goals at the end of the game. (Someone should have told him he had a good offense.) Of course Kubiak is on the list as well. And maybe Steve Slaton losing the magic he had in the first season. (Which might be attributed to the loss of our two starting guards but that seems like a free pass.)

While we could sit here and play the blame game, which I’m sure myself and many other fans will do in the off season, I’d like to look at some positive.

First the defense.  After last seasons miserable excuse for a defense we made a new hire in DC, Mr. Frank Bush. Frank Bush’s defense had a rocky start, but as it started to gel with the hardcore tendencies of Brian Cushing and the acquisition of Bernard Pollard. The linebacking core was amazing and as the year went on the defense only got better.

Second, Matt Schaub started 16 games and silenced all doubters. With a little more leadership and charisma the guy should be a pro bowler next year.

Third Arian Foster. The main reason we even won the game against the Pats was the rushing effort on the new guy. He might not be the answer but he was a Godsend for the closing of our first winning record.

The season shouldn’t have ended like this yes. (Relying on other teams to win games instead of letting our record speak for itself.) We only have to look at the first game of the season and think that if we would have beat the lowly Jets we would be in the playoffs right now.

So week sixteen went well for me, my picks as well as my Texans. I went 12-4, which puts my season total to 151-87 (.634). Who would have thought the Texans would have had a second half breakdown and still manage to win a tough one on the road?

As for playoffs, we in Houston can but dream. But the AFC wildcard chase is more crowded than an elevator holding the Patriots offensive line. This might be the best last week of the season in a while. I can’t wait to watch some hardcore, heartfelt football on Sunday.

For those people hoping Belichick will play a soft game against the Texans on Sunday can keep dreaming. There’s no way Mean Ol’ Belichick is going to let another playoff contender just waltz their way to a win. Maybe he might rest the starters if they’re ahead but probably in the fourth quarter. People claim he did it in Miami a couple years back but Miami wasn’t going to the playoffs and Nick Saban is part of the Belichick mafia. Gary Kubiak won’t be so lucky. Kubiak is going to have to outwit the Pats. He’s going to have to play aggressive. He’s going to have to prove that he’s the coach that can lead this team into the playoffs. This is the defining moment of Kubiak’s coaching career in Houston. Houston fans will remember this game win or lose. If he losses, he might be back next season as head coach but no one will respect him and the whole season would be just waiting for him to mess up to kick him out of town. If he wins, he lives to see another day and he might be a hero if we sneak into that last wildcard spot.

Indy over Buffalo.

New Orleans over Carolina.

Cleveland over Jacksonville.

Houston over New England.

Minnesota over Giants.

San Fran over St. Louis.

Atlanta over Tampa Bay.

Pittsburgh over Miami.

Chicago over Detroit.

Philly over Dallas.

Kansas City over Denver.

Baltimore over Oakland.

Tennessee over Seattle.

San Diego over Washington.

Green Bay over Arizona.

Cincinnati over Jets.

My hopes for the Houston Texans have packed their bags and walked out the door. The Houston Texans loosing to the Jacksonville Jaguars broke my heart, but I saw it coming. Something told me that the Texans were going to disappoint me.

This season has been full of heartache and indigestion for me. All of our losses have been winable. All of our losses have been within 7 points. (With the exception of the Colts loss last week, we lost by 8.) I keep coming back to this because it is my biggest complaint: Gary Kubiak is a bad game manager. He might be an ok player manager (I doubt it though, look at all of the penalties) but he cannot manage a game to save his life. Stupid play calls (A Chris Brown option…what?), poor clock management (not taking a timeout in the fourth quarter of the first Indy game) and settling for field goals when a touchdown will win the game (has anyone told Coach that we have a potent offense?) Say what you want, but Kubiak should instill confidence in our offense by putting the game on their shoulders. Let Schaub take us to the promise land and win a game with some big passes. That’s telling your offense, ‘I believe in you guys, win the game for us.’ Trying to tie the game instead of winning it is saying, ‘Our offense can’t score, let’s just settle for three.’

But then again, maybe that was a good decision. Poor Kris Brown is on suicide watch. Kris Brown is an original Texans and has been a clutch kicker his entire career. But putting so much pressure on a kicker when he’s in a bit of a slump is making him the scapegoat and writing him a ticket out of town. Maybe Kubiak wanted a scapegoat for the season. I’d hate to see Kris Brown have a Brad Lidge meltdown of confidence but that could happen. Brown might be in another jersey soon even though these games shouldn’t have been on him to begin with.

And speaking of men named Kris Brown, let’s move on to the other: Chris Brown. What a stupid option play to call. Every Texan fan died a little bit when that play was called. You never, never, never let a running back have an option of throwing the ball…because they’ll THROW IT. 99.9 % of the time a running back will go with the option to throw instead of run because it’s in all of our natures to want to be the quarterback. We aren’t a wildkat team, Kubiak. Did you call that play on a dare?

Here’s a dare: Andre Johnson, I dare you to stick around. Andre said in an interview earlier this season that he wanted to stick around and make this team great. Andre Johnson is the best receiver in the league. He’s tough, has great hands, unselfish, not a media hog, or a lunatic, and he’s fast! That’s the perfect receiver for a franchise. I’ve heard so much talk nationally and locally about Johnson’s future. I believe Andre when he says he wants to stick around, but we have to prove that we want to be a winning team.

Gary Kubiak wants to coach a winning team, but I don’t think he’s a head coach. He’s not a bad coach. Gary Kubiak brought the Texans into contention. The Texans can compete with any team. The thing is the Texans beat themselves. Gary Kubiak is vanilla. He’s mediocre. And because he’s mediocre the player are mediocre. The Texans might be the biggest group of underachievers this year. I don’t see Kubiak turning this around. We need to move on. Which is ridiculous of me to say because I subscribe to the give the coach a chance to get his system going philosophy.

I just don’t see this working out. I see a good offense system. I see a defense that’s improving. But I do not see the leadership that takes it to the next level. I’m afraid we suck this year, again. We’re worse than a bad team, we’re a good team that can’t play like a good team.

Every now and then somebody compliments my actually writing and I think maybe I should start writing more. (Which was the purpose of this blog.) Then I realize how hard that is and I get writers block before finishing a draft…So here’s more football.

This week I went 10-6. Which makes me 112-63, 64 % on the season.

The Texans proved they aren’t ready for playoffs yet, which saddened my heart greatly. I’m seriously in a football depression and I’m ready to get rid of Kubiak. At least the Cougars wiped the floor with Rice…